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David Maswary

Quote of the Day

One more time we are strangers, but this time with memories. Unknown author

Those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music  Arvind Krish

The world has taken a detour. More appropriately, it’s taken what seems to be a senseless turn into turmoil and unmendable rifts and divisiveness at best, to becoming dangerously settled on the precipice of state on state conflict at worse. If you live in the United States, Donald Trump’s election to the Presidency is either one more sign of the end of days, or it’s the course finally correcting itself. As America becomes increasingly more closed and introspective, while simultaneously appearing to be at war with itself to anyone looking in from the outside, the world’s most powerful nation feels unpredictable, although as we will see later, it really hasn’t changed all that much. Across the oceans.,Eurasia has gone from predictable prosperity to nuclear-level tension in Korea to Brexit roiling the European Union and leaving virtually every formerly thought of guarantee as a giant question mark.

Don’t worry!

I am what can generously be described as a geopolitical junie and what we’re seeing now is the return of history. That perpetual state of states and nations redefining their borders, alliances, imperatives, and whether this whole globalization idea was so great in the first place. If you are under the illusion that globalization will lessen the need for language service providers think again, your translator will mean more to your bottom line than ever before. As nation’s shift their allegiances and priorities, cultural nuances will become increasingly more vital to your bottom line and your interpreter or translator will be the person who ensures that your bottom line keeps growing. Case in point. Brazil’s formidable agricultural sector. In 2017, Brazil’sagricultural exports were close to a whopping 200 $USD millions No matter whether nations are eager to open or close their borders, no nation can live without the precious commodities that supply everything from food to the raw resources that keep industrial machines humming. Despite an economic and political crisis that has roiled markets for several years, Brazil’s commodity sector remains strong.

 

Campo Verde, Mato Grosso, Brazil

2017 proved to be a strong year for Brazilian agriculture and 2018 looks to be treacherous but promises at least nominal growth. The coming year will see a new World Cup, Presidential elections, and a political sector that’s even more agitated than usual as operação Lava Jato and President Michel Temer’s pension reforms will create a turbulent background for investors and manufacturers alike. Despite strong political headwinds agricultural investment and growth should, at minimum, return to a positive outlook in 2018. 

In the United States Jerome Powell, widely seen as a centrist, should maintain US fiscal stimulus for the majority of the year which promises good things for Brazilian agriculture as Trump continues his policy of deregulation and Brazil’s second largest trading partner will likely keep up a stream of exports.

Soy, Grains and Infrastructure – 2018 factors

Gross production of grains should hold steady at R$ 530 to R$ 550. After recovering about 8% from 2017’s 25% decline, agricultural commodities should remain high in the US, Brazil and Argentina.

The National Council of Energy Policy’s (Conselho Nacional de Política Energética (CNPE)) approval of soy to increase blends of biodiesel to 10% petroleum biodiesel. The measure, which will take affect in March 2018 has created expectations that biodiesel production will grow from a present 4.2 billion liters to 5.3 billion liters. Soy production should grow accordingly.

Grains and Infrastructure

As supply and demand increases the production of soy and its consequently improving price, other grains should follow suit and increase in demand and market production this coming year. Sadly, the same can’t be said of the agricultural platforms that support it. The economy, commanded by Henrique Meirelles could distance public investment and favor complacency in favor of productivity. In an election year in which any political party could possibly ascend to power including the incumbent party and president, investors and internal changes will come slowly. Other factors that will come into play in terms of unpredictably are global climactic ones. The formation of another La Niña and it’s accompanying damage could create uncertainty in markets until the first harvests of the year are picked and packaged.

Sales of Agricultural Machines in 2018 – Great Expectations

Domestic Sales of agricultural machinery reached sales of over 44,300 units and domestic manufacturers are already keen to show their wares in exhibits in national shows    

Exports also closed out 2017 higher: Up to USD$ 3.017 billion, up nearly 68% compared to 2016. According to the National Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers ( Associação Nacional dos Fabricantes de Veículos Automotores (Anfavea), the production of agricultural and road machinery reached 54.,900 units, an increase of 1.8% compared to 2017. Agricultural exports increased as well, reaching 1,300 exported machines in December, an increase of 39% relative to December 2016. Anfeava is anticipating an increase of 10% in the agricultural machinery sector alone, with 43% coming from domestic sales and 35% coming from exports.

Despite the protests of an uncertain world, Brazilian agriculture is slowly marching forward and the world’s appetite for commodities or the machinery to harvest them hasn’t waned. Despite political and economic uncertainty, 2018 looks to show increased slight improvement to meet a global demand in a worldwide economy that while not exactly humming, is plodding forward and leaving behind promising sectors in its wake.

David Maswary

david@mazwarlinguistics.com

 


 

 

 

 

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